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Posts by "ashraf laidi"
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Ashraf
Ashraf
Today is Sep 19, 2013.
Go to the EURUSD chart from Sep 19, 2012
See what happened. Find out why
And compare to today.
Ashraf
June high was not 1.3685
Anyway, 1.37 is in the works
Ashraf
(see last parag)
Figuring out the technical dynamics of EURUSD or any other pair) ahead of today’s FOMC meeting is especially paramount because it rides out the inherent volatility ahead of the announcement and the release of Fed’s summary projections at 14:00 ET (19:00 BST), followed by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference at 14:30 ET (19:30 BST), which could aim to neutralise the effect of the tapering announcement by focusing on matters such as lower inflation forecasts, GDP downgrades and reiterating that 6.5% unemployment is a threshold and not a trigger for higher interest rates. We spoke in more detail about the fundamentals of the FOMC decision in the gold section yesterday. Technicals are now showing a bullish shift in the long term according to our monthly stochastics, which are positive across all 3 panels (see chart). 3 weeks ago we were positive that EURUSD would reach 1.3100 but it was limited to 1.3105.
The dynamics have now shifted. 1.3440-50 is the next objective, followed by 1.3530s. The possibility of a pullback towards 1.3250s remains viable but this should be followed by a renewed recovery towards 1.3450s.
And heres what we wrote on GBPUSD
GBP rally continues as we stuck with our longs over the last 3 weeks Today’s hawkish minutes from the BoE’s MPC revealed an upgrade in 2013 GDP to 0.7% from 0.5%, which bolsters GBP status as the better currency to bid in the event of a Fed tapering of no greater than $10 bn. The Aug 2009 trendline resistance (see today’s chart) suggests the barrier is at 1.6370 for this month. Accordingly, we issue 2 longs targeting 1.6270 and 1.6310, while maintaining the unfilled longs. The only reason to expect a lasting decline in GBPUSD would be a fundamentally-driven factor from the US, such as a taper of $15 bn or more, or aggressive upgrades across the board in the Fed’s central tendency forecasts (GDP, inflation) and downgrades in unemployment, which is unlikely.
Ashraf
No Rate Hike before summer 2015
No Summers at the Fed
Whether it will be Yellen or another at the Fed, reaching unanimity at the FOMC shall become the Fed’s biggest challenge in 2014. Communicating (and agreeing) within the FOMC will be more challenging than communicating with the markets.
Ashraf
2014 and 2014 GDP growth, weaker inflation and mixed forecasts view on employment), he says. Fed Chair Bernanke can also again stress the "dovish notion that 7% is a threshold and not an automatic target for terminating all asset purchases," Laidi says.
- MNI
Ashraf
1 of our 2 EURUSD shorts was stopped out at 1.3300 today despite having issued the trade on Aug 29 to short between 1.3210-1.3240 for a target of 1.3100-1.3130 & a stop at 1.3300. Although EURUSD fell to 1.3105, we could not declare it as "hit all targets" because the final 1.3100 was not attained. Although many clients have entered between 1.3210 and 1.3240 for a 90-100 pip profit as the pair reached 1.3105, we listed the trade as a loss. Such a disciplined approach can sometimes work against our stated performance despite clients having profited.
Ashraf
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/38232563?utm_campaign=t.co&utm_source=38232563&utm_medium=social
Ashraf
Will discuss my tech & fund ideas for latest $EURUSD $GBPUSD trades + $AUDNZD & $AUDCHF in 4 hrs from nowhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/live-analysis/
Ashraf